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Banks are on the race of attracting capital so interest rates are expected to rise slightly

Although credit growth of banks to raise capital is increased, the race for deposit will not reduce the "hot" and still remains liquidity risks.

Good mobilization… is still competing

Mr. Nguyen Hoang Minh, deputy director of the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) HCM City branch said that in the first 4 months of 2016, total deposits in the province maintains steady growth, an increase of 3.73% from the previous year. It is estimated in the first 5 months raising capital continues to grow by 4.46% compared to last year. In particular, the volume of credit institutions (CIs) have positive growth rates, mobilized capital growth is 1.82% over last year calculated separately commercial banks (CBs) state, while joint stock commercial banks increased 5.82%.

Population deposits, savings in the first 4 months of 2016 are maintained a positive growth with an increase of 7.05% over last year and accounted for a large share of total capital in the province (53.94%). However, in recent times, most of the bank tend to boost interest rates of long term savings in order to balance the ratio of short-term capital for long-term loans, to meet the requirements of the amendment draft of Circular 36/2014 / TT-NHNN on reducing the rate of short-term funds for medium-term loans from 60% to 40%.

Macroeconomic Report 5/2016 months of BIDV Research Center recently announced that VND interbank interest rates fell sharply while the dollar rose slightly. VND inter-bank market in May 2016 is on the antonymous way compared to April 2016 with excess liquidity, the supply of credit has made falling interest rates. However, interbank interest rates VND June 2016 is forecasted to increase again by this center as the central bank is idled pumping money into the market through FX channel. Thus, in the long term, pressure on interest rate will gradually increase in case credit growth in 2016 remains 18-20%, while the first 4 months of this year new indicators rose nearly 4% total.

Meanwhile, banks have increased promotions in order to increase the attraction of savings deposit interest rates. For example, from now until the end of July 13th, Sacombank deployed promotions "Send instant hit's pre" for individual customers in the transaction of Sacombank nationwide with a total prize value more than 60 billion reward, for a savings of 5 million with a term of 1-36 months, the customer will receive cash prizes scratch cards, home appliances ...

Meanwhile, the interest rates of savings deposits at Sacombank is now quite competitive in the market and in the same size group of commercial banks. The highest interest rate applied Sacombank from 6.6 to 6.8% now / annum for 12-36 months.

In addition, a number of other banks also plus interest margin savings to customers. VietA Bank has incentive programs for savers aged 45 and older, in addition to prescribed interest rate, the bank also added 0.2% margin for customers aged above. The highest interest rate applied current VietA Bank depositors 7.6% / year for the term of 15 months or more ...

Deposit rates are forecasted to rise slightly

It is said that the pressure on rising saving rates is the pressure suction channel investment funds into government bonds, policy developments in the Circular 06 amended Circular 36 ... In addition, in savings interest rate and raise capital race at present does not rule out some small banks, the share saving modest market should have increased deposit rates and promotions to strengthen liquidity.

Report Financial Markets 2015 recently published by National Financial Supervision Commission shows the notable movements of liquidity of the banking system. Specifically, in 2015, the lending of the banking system clearly shifted in two directions: the rate of using short-term loans for medium-term loans was increased and the proportion of loans medium and long-term was also increased highly in the structure.

The statistics of National Financial Supervision Commission showed that in 2014, the proportion of short-term loans for medium-term loans was at only 20.2%, by the end of 2015 had increased to 31.8 %. Along with that, the share of medium-term credit had increased upto 55.4% in the total credit structure (from 2011 to 2014, respectively 45.1%, 45%, 45.8% and 50.3 %).

By the end of the first quarter of 2016, the trend continues to be expressed on the medium-long term credit with the increase of 3.3% YTD and 55.5% proportion of the total credit structure.

According to the National Financial Supervisory Commission, medium-term credit is increased partly because business expanded investment production and business, especially credit investment in real estate and lending criteria are increased, and the short-term debt partially is restructured debt into medium-term. In particular, the very strong growth of investment credit and real estate business rose up to 28.3% in 2015. Thus, the SBV has gradually "tightened" these flows with drafting Circular 06 on amending some articles of Circular 36 to enhance liquidity risk management system.

According to Macroeconomic Report May 2016 of BIDV Research Center, the credit of the whole system is more than 4.83 million billion as of April 27th 2016, equivalently to an increase of 3.57% compared to the end of 2015 (same period of credit growth of nearly 4%). Meanwhile, capital mobilization system has higher growth and credit growth reached 4.5% (mobilized capital loans are reached more than 5.39 billion).

Deposit rates are maintained stability after 2 correction increasing (0.2-0.4% / year) of banks in February and May 2016. Currently the mobilizing interest rate in VND is popular at 0.8 to 5.4% / year for the period under 6 months and from 5.4 to 7.2% / year for the period of 6 months. US dollar deposit interest rates continue to be maintained at 0% / year for deposits of individuals and organizations.

As for lending rates, four State-owned banks have lowered short-term lending rates in VND by 0.5% per year and lowered lending rates for medium-term up to 10% per year for customers with good history and loans for production and business. Currently the popular loan interest rates for sectors with priority are from 6 to 7% per year in short-term and 9-10% per year in medium-long term. Lending rates are from 6.8 to 9% in the short term and 9.3 to 11% per year in the medium-long term.

Besides, the BIDV’s report also said that the credit in the Q3/2016 is forecasted to continue positively growing, with an increase of approximately 10-11%. The deposit rates are forecasted to rise slightly to ensure liquidity and be "competitive" with the government bond.

Financial expert Huynh Trung Minh also said that interest rates can hardly remain the current average, but are likely to increase in the near future, partly due to exchange rate pressure caused by external impacts.

(Stock Investment)

Số lượt đọc:  37  -  Cập nhật lần cuối:  02/06/2016 02:16:04 PM
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